Israeli Response to Trump's Trip to the Gulf
Israel Forced to Recalibrate Regional Strategy as US Shifts Priorities
Israel's perception of Donald Trump's May 2025 trip to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar is characterized by significant concern and a growing sense of being sidelined. While Trump's first term delivered many "wins" for Israel, such as the embassy move to Jerusalem, recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and the Abraham Accords, this recent trip appears to signal a shift in US priorities that could leave Israel in a more precarious regional position.
A major concern for Israel is its exclusion from Trump's itinerary and the significant diplomatic processes unfolding without its direct involvement. These strongly suggest that the Trump administration is re-evaluating Israel's role and reducing its reliance on Israel in favor of strengthening economic and strategic ties with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.
The massive economic and defense agreements, like Saudi Arabia's $142 billion defense package and $600 billion economic investment pledge, Qatar Airways' $96 billion Boeing order, and the UAE's $1.4 trillion investment commitment, are seen as a way for Trump to advance his "America First" vision and his personal financial interests even at Israel's expense. Additionally, the potential sale of advanced weapons, including F-35 fighter jets, to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE (which they were promised in exchange for signing the Abraham Accords) undermines Israel's long-standing Qualitative Military Edge (QME), which the US had safeguarded for years.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to view Iran's nuclear program as an existential threat, making the prospect of Trump negotiating a new nuclear deal with Iran a source of extreme concern, even if it significantly reduces Tehran's ability to develop a nuclear bomb. Netanyahu’s consistent demand has been for "zero enrichment" and the complete dismantlement of Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Therefore, any deal that allows Iran to continue enrichment, even under tight controls, would be unacceptable. Israeli officials are reportedly considering options to sabotage the nuclear talks, including by striking Iranian nuclear sites, if they believe Trump is settling for a "bad deal." Beyond the nuclear aspect, Israel fears that any economic relief to Iran, even as part of a nuclear deal, would strengthen the current regime and allow it to increase support for its “Axis of Resistance” proxies throughout the Middle East.
Trump's statement that Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel "on its own time" is a clear acknowledgment that the ongoing war in Gaza and Israel's reluctance to commit to a political resolution of the Palestinian issue are significant obstacles. This is a major setback for Israel, which had hoped to expand the Abraham Accords. Moreover, Gulf leaders, backed by Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco, are reportedly using their access to Trump to advocate for an end to the Gaza conflict, a position that directly contradicts Prime Minister Netanyahu's current strategy. Trump's direct negotiations with Hamas for the release of an American-Israeli detainee and his calls for an end to Israel's war in Gaza, in opposition to Netanyahu's desires, are a significant departure from Trump's first-term approach, where he largely allowed Israel to operate as it saw fit.
Adding to Israel's anxieties are the concerns over Syria's re-engagement. Israel still views Syria as a security threat, and urged Trump to keep sanctions on Damascus. His decision, at the behest of Saudi and Turkish leadership, to lift sanctions and engage with Syria's interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, despite Israeli objections, is another instance of Israel being ignored on critical regional security matters, further highlighting Israel's diminishing influence on US regional policy.
While Israel and the Trump administration maintain public statements of strong ties, the implications of Trump's May 2025 Gulf trip are perceived by Israel as a complex mix of challenges to its traditional centrality in US Middle East policy, increased anxieties about Iran's nuclear program, and a potential shift in US approaches to the Palestinian issue and regional normalization. The trip has certainly fostered a sense of extreme concern and will force Israel to recalibrate its regional strategy in light of evolving US priorities.